“The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025,” they wrote, citing data from their kinked Phillips curve framework. According to BCA, the framework suggests a nonlinear ...

The analysis is based on three empirical approaches. Inflation drivers and its dynamics are investigated through the estimation of a Phillips curve augmented with foreign factors and a panel vector ...

The latter requires considering aggregate supply and Phillips Curve trade-offs. The note does not cover other macroeconomic policies, such as macroprudential or fiscal measures, which could also have ...